Last updated: January 2026
A 10 Year Look at the Denver Real Estate Market (2016 to 2026)
Denver Real Estate Market 2026
Denver Home Prices Forecast
Denver Market Trends
Denver Real Estate Data Analytics
Over the last decade, the Denver housing market has moved through distinct phases: an expansion cycle, a pandemic-era surge, and a post-2022 rate reset that brought negotiation, patience, and strategy back into the conversation.
In this 10-year look back (January 2016 to January 2026), we’ll compare the core metrics that shape real outcomes for buyers, sellers, and investors, and we’ll zoom in on what’s different today across local submarkets like Denver, Cherry Hills Village, Arvada, and Lakewood.
Data sources used for this update include Denver Metro Association of REALTORS® (DMAR) Market Trends Reports and Zillow’s ZHVI “typical home value” snapshots for local market comparisons.
- What drove Denver home price growth (2016 to 2026)
- Six indicators we are not in a 2008-style bubble
- Then vs now: How 2026 differs from 2008
- The 10-year metric table: Jan 2016 vs Jan 2026
- Local market differences: DMAR footprint counties + key cities
- Seasonality: what typically happens next
- Denver home prices forecast (2026 scenarios)
- FAQs
What drove Denver home price growth (2016 to 2026)
1. Inventory cycles and “sticky” demand
The simplest way to understand Denver over the last decade: demand rarely disappeared, it shifted.
When inventory tightened, the market sped up. When rates rose and affordability tightened, the market slowed and became payment-driven.
By January 2026, Metro Denver ended the month with 8,228 active listings, a clear sign buyers have more choice than the peak scarcity years.
2. Rates didn’t just change demand, they changed behavior
2020 to 2021 was speed-based. 2022 to 2026 has been math-based.
Buyers are more strategic, negotiation is more common, and sellers are rewarded for preparation and precision rather than “hope pricing.”
3. Local markets didn’t move in unison
Denver is not one market. Cherry Hills Village can rise while Denver proper softens. Arvada can behave differently than Lakewood.
The last decade made one thing obvious: outcomes are hyper-local and price-point specific.
Six indicators we are not in a 2008-style bubble (2026 edition)
- Inventory is higher, not collapsing. More listings often signal normalization, not panic selling.
- Prices can flatten without free-falling. Denver is seeing slower growth patterns rather than crash conditions.
- Time on market is a pressure valve. Longer timelines absorb change before big pricing breaks.
- Lending conditions are structurally different than the mid-2000s. Most risk today is affordability, not underwriting.
- Sellers are adapting, not dumping. The market is rewarding sellers who price to today’s payment reality.
- Luxury and entry-level behave differently. Micro-markets have different buyer pools and elasticity.
Then vs now: How 2026 differs from 2008
2008 was driven by weak underwriting, risky loan products, and forced selling. 2026 is defined more by affordability and rate sensitivity.
That difference matters because it changes the correction pattern: instead of sudden collapse, markets often show up as longer days on market, more negotiation, and selective price reductions.
The 10-year metric table: Jan 2016 vs Jan 2026
January 2016 (DMAR baseline)
| Active inventory | 4,384 |
|---|---|
| Sold homes | 4,170 |
| Average sold price | $374,900 |
| Median sold price | $315,000 |
| Average days on market | 40 |
Source: DMAR January 2016 Market Trends Report.
January 2026 (DMAR update)
| Active listings at month end | 8,228 |
|---|---|
| New listings | 4,455 |
| Pending | 3,060 |
| Closed | 1,919 |
| Average close price | $676,548 |
| Median close price | $569,500 |
| Median days in MLS | 53 |
Source: DMAR January 2026 Market Trends Report.
The 2026 market offers more buyer choice (inventory up), slower decision cycles (days on market up), and “selective competition” where well-located, well-presented homes still sell faster than the rest.
Local market differences: DMAR footprint counties + key cities
DMAR footprint counties (Zillow ZHVI snapshot, data through January 2026)
| County | Typical home value | 1-year change | Market signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adams | $476,836 | -3.7% | More affordability vs core Denver |
| Arapahoe | $506,130 | -3.9% | Payment sensitivity + wide submarket range |
| Boulder | $702,385 | -3.0% | Higher price tier, different buyer pool |
| Broomfield | $613,853 | -1.8% | Stable demand corridor |
| Clear Creek | $551,263 | -0.8% | Mountain-adjacent variability |
| Denver (city) | $524,187 | -4.3% | Neighborhood and condition matter more than ever |
| Douglas | $697,262 | -2.9% | High demand pockets remain competitive |
| Elbert | $662,079 | -0.4% | Acreage + lifestyle demand |
| Gilpin | $539,931 | -1.5% | Lower volume can mean higher volatility |
| Jefferson | $609,450 | -2.6% | Commute corridors + school zones influence demand |
| Park | $507,244 | -2.4% | Seasonality + longer timelines |
County ZHVI sources: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson, Park, plus Denver (city).
Key cities: Denver, Cherry Hills Village, Arvada, Lakewood (Zillow ZHVI snapshot)
| City | Typical home value | 1-year change | Market note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | $524,187 | -4.3% | Neighborhood and condition matter more than ever |
| Cherry Hills Village | $3,114,442 | +5.0% | Luxury behaves differently; smaller buyer pool, different elasticity |
| Arvada | $597,416 | -2.7% | Competition varies by school zones and commute corridors |
| Lakewood | $555,248 | -2.9% | West-side demand remains strong; pricing discipline wins |
In January 2026, many areas are mildly down year-over-year, while ultra-luxury pockets like Cherry Hills Village can remain resilient or even rise. This is exactly why “Denver market headlines” are rarely enough to price a specific home accurately.
Unemployment Rates in Denver Metro (MSA)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED. Annual values through 2024. 2025 annual average is not yet released, so the latest available monthly reading (Dec 2025) is shown for context.
Unemployment Rate (2009-2016)
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
Unemployment Rate (2017-2026)
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (Dec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
Average Interest Rates (30-Year Fixed)
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS annual averages (as compiled by Bankrate). 2026 value is year-to-date through late January 2026. Current weekly PMMS was 6.01% as of Feb 19, 2026.
Average 30-Year Fixed Rate (2009-2016)
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 5.38% | 4.86% | 4.65% | 3.88% | 4.16% | 4.31% | 3.99% | 3.79% |
Average 30-Year Fixed Rate (2017-2026)
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 4.14% | 4.70% | 4.13% | 3.38% | 3.15% | 5.53% | 7.00% | 6.90% | 6.66% | 6.21% |
Denver Metro Appreciation (FHFA)
2009–2021 values are preserved from the original article. 2022+ values use the FHFA All-Transactions HPI as an appreciation proxy (Denver County annual through 2024; 2025 shown as latest YoY through Q3 using the Denver Metro MSA quarterly index).
Home Value Appreciation (2009-2017)
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appreciation | -2.1% | 6.3% | -1.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% |
Home Value Appreciation (2018-2026)
| Year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (YoY thru Q3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appreciation | 8.2% | 2.4% | 8.7% | 17.2% | +14.9% | +1.6% | +0.8% | ~+0.8% |
Why these three tables matter:
Denver real estate moves at the intersection of local job health (unemployment), borrowing costs (interest rates), and how quickly prices respond (appreciation). When rates rise, the market often “corrects” through time and negotiation before it corrects through dramatic price drops.
Seasonality: what typically happens next
Even in unusual years, Denver seasonality tends to rhyme. Winter tends to be slower and more price-sensitive.
Spring brings new listings and fresh buyer demand. Early in a seasonal rebound, the best homes sell first, and the rest of the market takes longer to re-price to reality.
Denver home prices forecast (2026 scenarios)
No honest forecast is a single number. In 2026, the most defensible outlook is scenario-based because rates and affordability remain the biggest swing factors.
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.01% as of February 19, 2026.
DMAR’s January 2026 report references JPMorgan forecasting nominal home prices may flatten in 2026 while sales activity improves as demand responds to stabilizing interest rates.
| 2026 scenario | What happens | What it could mean for prices | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (most likely) | Rates stabilize near ~6%, sales slowly improve, inventory stays elevated | Flat to slight growth (about -2% to +2%) | Prepared buyers and correctly priced sellers |
| Upside case | Rates drift lower and buyer activity returns faster than inventory rises | Modest appreciation (about +2% to +5%) | Sellers with A-condition homes in A-locations |
| Downside case | Rates rise again or affordability tightens as inventory grows | Selective declines (about -3% to -6%) | Buyers with leverage, cash, or strong underwriting |
A normalization market typically “corrects” through time and negotiation before it corrects through sharp declines.
That pattern aligns with January 2026 data showing higher inventory and longer timelines, alongside DMAR’s commentary pointing toward a flatter price environment if rates stabilize.
FAQs
Is the Denver housing market going to crash in 2026?
A crash typically requires forced selling and rapid demand destruction. In 2026, the market shows more signs of normalization: higher inventory, longer days on market, and flatter pricing rather than collapse.
Are Denver home prices dropping right now?
Many areas are mildly down year-over-year as of January 2026, but the trend is not uniform. Micro-markets and price tiers behave differently, and the best homes still sell faster than the rest.
What’s the best buyer strategy in 2026?
Be fully underwritten, shop monthly payment, and target homes that have been sitting due to overpricing or condition. That is where negotiation power typically shows up first.
What’s the best seller strategy in 2026?
Preparation and pricing. The market is rewarding homes that are well-presented and priced to today’s payment reality, not yesterday’s comps.
Written by
Anton Usaj
Sources referenced: DMAR Market Trends Reports (Jan 2016, Jan 2026), Zillow ZHVI city/county snapshots (data through Jan 2026), and Freddie Mac PMMS weekly mortgage rate survey.
