Interest Rates Increased for the 6th Time This Year
Unfortunately, inflation is still close to a 40-year high, and as a result, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points yesterday October 2022. This is the sixth hike this year. The Fed is expected to raise rates again next month, but the hike is presumed to be smaller. This week, interest rates reached 6.95 percent and they are forecasted to rise in the near future.
Homes Taking Almost a Month to Sell
According to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR), the average home is taking 28 days to sell and fewer homes landed buyers in October, with only 3,401 homes going under contract (down from 5,790 in October 2021).
Even with fewer buyers out there, homes appreciated year-over-year by 8.22 percent on average. Month-over-month, prices are down 1.36 percent. The average home sale price in Denver Metro was $661,335.
Inventory is Down from Last Month
October saw an increase in active inventory by 115.94 percent compared to October 2021. Denver Metro only had 3,971 homes for sale at the end of October 2021; at the end of October 2022, we had 7,290. More sellers listed their homes on the market in September than in October, and we had more homes for sale overall.
In September, we had 7,683 homes available for purchase at the end of the month, and in October, that number dipped slightly to 7,290. A more drastic number is the number of new listings which dropped to 3,837 in October, a 27 percent drop month over month and a 28 percent drop year over year.
The number of new listings dropped to 3,837 in October, a 27 percent drop month over month and a 28 percent drop year over year.
While inventory is up compared to 2021 and 2020 levels, it is lower when compared to 2019 and 2018. And a historical perspective can be powerful. According to DMAR, the average number of available listings for October 2022 from 1985 through 2021 is 14,957. Last month in Denver, we had 7,290 — that’s nearly half the historical norm.
Overall Picture
According to Nicole Rueth with OneTrust Home Loans, while 71 percent of homeowners in Colorado have a mortgage, a massive 92 percent of those homeowners have a mortgage rate of 5 percent or less.
Therefore, if interest rates continue to rise, it is reasonable to think that fewer homeowners will put their houses on the market, leading to lower inventory levels.
Demand is also down as fewer home buyers are getting into the market. According to Rueth, mortgage rate applications are down 42 percent year over year.
Key Quotes from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors:
- “Rising inflation and interest rates are undoubtedly changing the landscape of the market, showcased in new listings, which declined 26.73 percent from last month and 27.92 year-over-year.”
- “While the market changes, the past two years continue to represent the exception and not the rule. If one was to remove 2020 and 2021, the Denver Metro market trajectory is on pace with where it was predicted to be, had COVID-19 not happened.”
October Numbers Over the Years:
| Avg. Days on Market | Avg. Sold Price: Single Family Home | Avg. Sold Price: Condo | # of New Listings | # of Homes Sold | # of Homes Pending | Avg. Sold Price Change YOY | |
| Oct. 2017 | 38 | $490,252 | $328,760 | 4,724 | 4,450 | 5,411 | + 11.85 % |
| Oct. 2018 | 29 | $526,092 | $341,418 | 5,359 | 4,181 | 4,628 | + 7.12 % |
| Oct. 2019 | 33 | $535,483 | $365,665 | 5,425 | 4,654 | 5,179 | + 3.54 % |
| Oct. 2020 | 24 | $625,100 | $393,733 | 6,246 | 5,984 | 6,141 | + 16.2 % |
| Oct. 2021 | 14 | $684,700 | $440,560 | 5,314 | 5,169 | 5,790 | + 9.53 % |
| Oct 2022 | 28 | $738,145 | $479,119 | 3,837 | 3,315 | 3,401 | + 8.22 % |
Source: DMAR
Average Interest Rates by Year in Denver
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2020 | 2022 (thru Q3) | |
| Average Interest Rate | 5% | 4.7% | 4.% | 3.6% | 4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.96% | 4.87% |
Data courtesy of Megan Aller | First American Title
Read Denver Metro Association of Realtors’ full report on last month’s Real Estate trends and statistics in Denver here.
And as always, please let us know if you have any questions!
Whether buying or selling, Usaj Realty is dedicated to helping you stay competitive. Your Usaj Realty broker will communicate effectively, learn your goals like the back of their hand, work closely with you to negotiate the best terms possible, and expertly manage your transaction from start to finish, ensuring peace of mind.
Email us at info@usajrealtystg.wpenginepowered.com or call 720.398.2999
